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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 26 – Denver Broncos 34

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 46 for -11 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 99-Z.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model