4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 23 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-58-I.McDuffie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model