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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 54

Denver Broncos 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to GB 6, impetus ends at GB 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-31-K.Abrams-Draine. DEN-40-J.Strnad was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at GB 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.84 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP