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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 61

Denver Broncos 21 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 41 for 2 yards (52-R.Gary).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.32 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model