Value Picks — Week 7

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

MIA @ NYJ Disagrees with the line

Model: MIA 59.5% Line: NYJ 63.1% 22.6-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ TEN Disagrees with the line

Model: TEN 65.3% Line: CLE 54.4% 19.7-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ SEA

Model: SEA 73.2% Line: SEA 57.3% 15.9-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ HOU

Model: HOU 62.3% Line: HOU 77.1% 14.8-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ PHI Disagrees with the line

Model: PHI 51.6% Line: DAL 63.1% 14.7-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ ATL Disagrees with the line

Model: ATL 53.3% Line: SF 60.2% 13.5-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ BAL Disagrees with the line

Model: CIN 52.9% Line: BAL 58.8% 11.7-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ NO

Model: PIT 50.9% Line: PIT 60.2% 9.3-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ LV

Model: LA 69.0% Line: LA 63.1% 5.9-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ CHI

Model: CHI 53.0% Line: CHI 58.8% 5.8-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ MIN

Model: MIN 63.2% Line: MIN 68.5% 5.3-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ CAR

Model: CAR 64.1% Line: CAR 60.2% 3.9-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ ARI

Model: DEN 59.6% Line: DEN 63.1% 3.5-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ DET

Model: DET 59.8% Line: DET 58.8% 1.0-pt gap vs. the line