Value Picks — Week 1

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

NYJ @ TEN

Model: TEN 73.3% Line: TEN 54.4% 18.9-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ IND Disagrees with the line

Model: IND 59.5% Line: BAL 58.8% 18.3-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ JAX

Model: JAX 85.4% Line: JAX 73.6% 11.8-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ NYG Disagrees with the line

Model: NYG 52.6% Line: DAL 58.8% 11.4-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ CAR Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 51.7% Line: CHI 58.8% 10.5-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ LAC

Model: LAC 63.4% Line: LAC 73.6% 10.2-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ MIN Disagrees with the line

Model: GB 55.0% Line: MIN 54.4% 9.4-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ PIT

Model: PIT 60.0% Line: PIT 68.5% 8.5-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ LV

Model: LV 50.4% Line: LV 58.8% 8.4-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ CIN

Model: CIN 67.4% Line: CIN 60.2% 7.2-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ PHI

Model: PHI 60.4% Line: PHI 67.2% 6.8-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ DET

Model: DET 63.3% Line: DET 69.8% 6.5-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ SEA

Model: SEA 64.0% Line: SEA 58.8% 5.2-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ HOU

Model: BUF 50.3% Line: BUF 54.4% 4.1-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ LA

Model: LA 57.4% Line: LA 60.2% 2.8-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ KC

Model: KC 54.9% Line: KC 57.3% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line