Value Picks — Week 5

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

LV @ NE

Model: NE 83.8% Line: NE 60.2% 23.6-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ GB Disagrees with the line

Model: GB 67.2% Line: CHI 54.4% 21.6-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ NO Disagrees with the line

Model: NO 59.0% Line: MIN 57.3% 16.3-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ DAL

Model: DAL 62.2% Line: DAL 75.9% 13.7-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ WAS Disagrees with the line

Model: NYG 51.8% Line: WAS 60.2% 12.0-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ TEN

Model: HOU 57.6% Line: HOU 68.5% 10.9-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ MIA

Model: CIN 59.1% Line: CIN 69.8% 10.7-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ SEA

Model: SEA 67.0% Line: SEA 58.8% 8.2-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ JAX

Model: JAX 64.2% Line: JAX 71.1% 6.9-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ LAC

Model: DEN 53.5% Line: DEN 60.2% 6.7-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ LA

Model: LA 55.3% Line: LA 60.2% 4.9-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ NYJ

Model: NYJ 53.8% Line: NYJ 57.3% 3.5-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ ARI

Model: DET 63.4% Line: DET 65.8% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ PIT

Model: PIT 61.0% Line: PIT 58.8% 2.2-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ ATL

Model: ATL 60.6% Line: ATL 60.2% 0.4-pt gap vs. the line