Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- CLE defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- CLE on 3 more days rest than NYJ
- QB edge to NYJ: Geno Smith (NYJ) -0.066 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.109 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
CLE
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:25 TD NYJ (9:25) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – NYJ 6
- Q1 03:30 FG CLE (3:30) 25-A.Szmyt 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – NYJ 7
- Q2 10:19 FG CLE (10:19) 25-A.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 6 – NYJ 7
- Q4 14:42 FG NYJ (14:42) 19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. CLE 6 – NYJ 10
- Q4 06:21 TD CLE (6:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-D.Boston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – NYJ 10
- Q4 03:07 TD NYJ (3:07) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – NYJ 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 11 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(3:30) 25-A.Szmyt 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to NYJ 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(13:32) 14-A.McNamara punts 40 yards to CLE 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. PENALTY on NYJ-84-M.McClain, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%
(10:19) 25-A.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(8:40) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to CLE 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-D.McMillon.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 38%
(1:30) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CLE 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYJ 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 30 for 18 yards (31-D.McMillon; 34-M.Burton).
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 41%
(11:56) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CLE 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(10:22) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to NYJ 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to CLE 47 for 20 yards (24-D.Thomas; 98-A.Huntington).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 85Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 63%
(3:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to NYJ 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 37 for 13 yards (11-M.Corley).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%
(14:42) 19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EPp(convert) 67%
(10:45) 14-A.McNamara punts 46 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 43 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 52%
(4:01) (Punt formation) 13-C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-T.Wallace at CLE 23.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 19 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(2:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to NYJ 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:48) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to CLE 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 81 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 34%
(:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 19 for 0 yards (9-W.McDonald). FUMBLES (9-W.McDonald) [9-W.McDonald], touched at CLE 18, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at CLE 17.
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