Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 71

New York Jets 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 14-A.McNamara punts 40 yards to CLE 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. PENALTY on NYJ-84-M.McClain, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.58 EP
74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model