4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 47

New York Jets 7 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CLE 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.14 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP