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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.09 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model