4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 70

New York Jets 7 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to CLE 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.23 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model