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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 48

New York Jets 7 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CLE 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.57 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model