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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 6 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to NYJ 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 37 for 13 yards (11-M.Corley).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.55 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 85, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP