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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 7

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 25-A.Szmyt 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP