Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 12 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 19 for 0 yards (9-W.McDonald). FUMBLES (9-W.McDonald) [9-W.McDonald], touched at CLE 18, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at CLE 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.70 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -1.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP