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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 6 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYJ 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 30 for 18 yards (31-D.McMillon; 34-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.38 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -1.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model