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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 89

Cleveland Browns 6 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to NYJ 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to CLE 47 for 20 yards (24-D.Thomas; 98-A.Huntington).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 89, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 46, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model