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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 25-A.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model