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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 12 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to NYJ 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.11 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -2.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model