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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 60

New York Jets 10 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 14-A.McNamara punts 46 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP