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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 12 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(4:01) (Punt formation) 13-C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-T.Wallace at CLE 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -1.55 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model