Value Picks — Week 4

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

ARI @ NYG Disagrees with the line

Model: NYG 62.2% Line: ARI 57.3% 19.5-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ CHI

Model: CHI 79.6% Line: CHI 60.2% 19.4-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ CAR

Model: DET 50.4% Line: DET 63.1% 12.7-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ MIN

Model: MIN 64.6% Line: MIN 77.1% 12.5-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ WAS

Model: IND 51.8% Line: IND 63.1% 11.3-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ SEA

Model: SEA 77.7% Line: SEA 69.8% 7.9-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ LV

Model: KC 56.6% Line: KC 63.1% 6.5-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ CIN

Model: CIN 51.4% Line: CIN 57.3% 5.9-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ BAL

Model: BAL 76.1% Line: BAL 80.3% 4.2-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ SF

Model: SF 62.9% Line: SF 58.8% 4.1-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ TB

Model: GB 62.7% Line: GB 58.8% 3.9-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ CLE

Model: PIT 54.4% Line: PIT 57.3% 2.9-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ BUF

Model: BUF 67.0% Line: BUF 69.8% 2.8-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ HOU

Model: HOU 60.5% Line: HOU 58.8% 1.7-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ NO

Model: NO 53.0% Line: NO 54.4% 1.4-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ PHI

Model: LA 59.8% Line: LA 60.2% 0.4-pt gap vs. the line