Value Picks — Week 2

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

PIT @ NE

Model: NE 81.1% Line: NE 63.1% 18.0-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ ATL Disagrees with the line

Model: ATL 60.0% Line: CAR 57.3% 17.3-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ NYJ

Model: GB 75.3% Line: GB 60.2% 15.1-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ TEN

Model: PHI 56.6% Line: PHI 69.8% 13.2-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ BAL

Model: BAL 61.9% Line: BAL 73.6% 11.7-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ SF

Model: SF 74.0% Line: SF 82.3% 8.3-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ DAL

Model: DAL 53.0% Line: DAL 60.2% 7.2-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ KC

Model: KC 60.9% Line: KC 67.2% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ ARI

Model: SEA 66.4% Line: SEA 60.2% 6.2-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ BUF

Model: BUF 71.9% Line: BUF 65.8% 6.1-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ DEN

Model: DEN 54.4% Line: DEN 57.3% 2.9-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ CHI

Model: CHI 65.7% Line: CHI 63.1% 2.6-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ HOU

Model: HOU 61.0% Line: HOU 58.8% 2.2-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ TB

Model: TB 72.0% Line: TB 73.6% 1.6-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ LAC

Model: LAC 69.4% Line: LAC 68.5% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ LA

Model: LA 67.9% Line: LA 68.5% 0.6-pt gap vs. the line