Value Picks — Week 3

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

KC @ MIA

Model: KC 51.0% Line: KC 77.1% 26.1-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ WAS

Model: SEA 58.2% Line: SEA 73.6% 15.4-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ DET

Model: DET 83.6% Line: DET 69.8% 13.8-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ NYG

Model: NYG 70.8% Line: NYG 57.3% 13.5-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ CHI Disagrees with the line

Model: CHI 52.8% Line: PHI 60.2% 13.0-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ BUF

Model: BUF 82.0% Line: BUF 69.8% 12.2-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ IND Disagrees with the line

Model: IND 57.8% Line: HOU 54.4% 12.2-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ NO

Model: NO 70.9% Line: NO 60.2% 10.7-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ TB Disagrees with the line

Model: TB 54.7% Line: MIN 54.4% 9.1-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ PIT

Model: CIN 51.3% Line: CIN 60.2% 8.9-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ GB

Model: GB 68.2% Line: GB 63.1% 5.1-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ DEN Disagrees with the line

Model: LA 50.5% Line: DEN 54.4% 4.9-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ JAX

Model: JAX 62.3% Line: JAX 58.8% 3.5-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ DAL

Model: BAL 56.4% Line: BAL 58.8% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ SF

Model: SF 70.4% Line: SF 71.1% 0.7-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ CLE

Model: CAR 57.2% Line: CAR 57.3% 0.1-pt gap vs. the line