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Baltimore Ravens

2-1 HC Jesse Minter
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Dallas Cowboys

1-2 HC Brian Schottenheimer
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 16:25 ET Maracana Stadium, Rio de Janeiro BR ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

BAL
56.4%
DAL
43.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • BAL offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.162 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BAL 28 21–35
–
DAL 23 16–30
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

BAL

Ronnie Stanley T Out Toe
Zay Flowers WR Questionable Hamstring

DAL

Malik Hooker S Out Forearm
P.J. Locke S Out Foot
Cobie Durant CB Out Hamstring
DeMarvion Overshown LB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 34
–
DAL 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:13 FG DAL (8:13) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. BAL 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 04:35 TD DAL (4:35) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – DAL 9
  • Q1 01:22 TD BAL (1:22) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – DAL 10
  • Q2 11:29 TD BAL (11:29) 22-D.Henry right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – DAL 10
  • Q2 04:48 FG BAL (4:48) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. BAL 17 – DAL 10
  • Q2 00:23 FG DAL (:23) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. BAL 17 – DAL 13
  • Q3 03:50 TD BAL (3:50) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 17-C.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – DAL 13
  • Q3 01:53 TD DAL (1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 87-J.Ferguson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 24 – DAL 19
  • Q4 09:46 TD DAL (9:46) 9-K.Turpin left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 24 – DAL 27
  • Q4 01:34 TD BAL (1:34) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 88-M.Hibner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 30 – DAL 28
  • Q4 00:10 FG DAL (:10) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. BAL 31 – DAL 31
  • Q4 00:01 FG BAL (:01) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. BAL 34 – DAL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:37) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to DAL 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 33 for 5 yards (49-J.Higgins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (8:13) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (6:12) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 30 for no gain (13-C.Downs).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 32%

    (15:00) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to BAL 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:24) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 44 for no gain (0-R.Smith). FUMBLES (0-R.Smith), and recovers at DAL 43.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (4:48) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%

    (:23) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 39%

    (13:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to BAL 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 58 yards to DAL 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 33 for 12 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 55%

    (6:07) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-K.Jackson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (13:07) 22-D.Henry left guard to DAL 4 for -3 yards (55-J.Barham).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:40) 30-R.Eckley punts 48 yards to DAL 7, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 17 yards (46-N.Moore).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:57) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to BAL 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-L.Wester to BAL 36 for 24 yards (27-R.Steward; 89-B.Spann-Ford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →