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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(:10) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model