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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-K.Jackson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.70 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP