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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to DAL 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 33 for 5 yards (49-J.Higgins).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.22 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP