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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 30-R.Eckley punts 48 yards to DAL 7, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 17 yards (46-N.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.35 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP