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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(:23) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.64 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model