4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 58 yards to DAL 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 33 for 12 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model