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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 9

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 9, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP