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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 10, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model