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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 30 for no gain (13-C.Downs).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.90 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model