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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(13:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to BAL 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model