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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to BAL 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.17 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model