4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 56

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(9:24) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 44 for no gain (0-R.Smith). FUMBLES (0-R.Smith), and recovers at DAL 43.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.39 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model