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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 1

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 22-D.Henry left guard to DAL 4 for -3 yards (55-J.Barham).

The Three Options

GO +3.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.34 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model