Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- MIA offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- MIA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- KC defense: -0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.126 EPA/dropback in prior starts
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 3
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:57 TD KC (12:57) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – MIA 0
- Q1 03:33 TD MIA (3:33) 77-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 0-O.Gordon left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – MIA 6
- Q2 13:02 TD KC (13:02) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-K.Walker for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – MIA 7
- Q3 10:13 FG MIA (10:13) 47-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. KC 14 – MIA 10
- Q4 11:38 FG KC (11:38) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 17 – MIA 10
- Q4 03:01 TD KC (3:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-J.Uche]. KC 23 – MIA 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 36%
(9:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short middle to 6-M.Washington (5-M.Delane).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 12Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%
(6:15) 64-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to MIA 12 for no gain (20-J.Brooks; 90-M.Herring).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 46%
(:54) 48-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to KC 9, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 17 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%
(10:13) 47-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(8:13) 14-M.Araiza punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 54%
(3:18) 48-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to KC 8, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 16 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%
(11:38) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 29%
(6:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman (20-N.Williams).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 52 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 29%
(2:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right intended for 84-R.Miller INTERCEPTED by 56-G.Karlaftis (95-C.Jones) at MIA 36. 56-G.Karlaftis to MIA 36 for no gain (55-A.Brewer).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 32 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%
(:57) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
See the full breakdown →
