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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short middle to 6-M.Washington (5-M.Delane).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.02 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model