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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(:54) 48-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to KC 9, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.64 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model