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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(6:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman (20-N.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.43 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model