4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.47 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model