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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 18

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 47-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.48 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model