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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 12

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 64-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to MIA 12 for no gain (20-J.Brooks; 90-M.Herring).

The Three Options

GO +2.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.79 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model