Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Miami Dolphins 10

(8:13) 14-M.Araiza punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.54 EP
63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model