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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 48-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to KC 8, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model