4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right intended for 84-R.Miller INTERCEPTED by 56-G.Karlaftis (95-C.Jones) at MIA 36. 56-G.Karlaftis to MIA 36 for no gain (55-A.Brewer).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.00 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model