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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:57) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.36 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model